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Oscar Nomination Predictions: Big Tuesday for ‘King’s Speech’ and ‘Inception’

January 24th, 2011 by Gregory Ellwood HitFix.com

After months of campaigning, millions of dollars in advertising, hundreds of guild screenings and a slew of second rate awards shows, the nominations announcement for the 83rd Academy Awards is almost here. Clearly, there will be weeks of debate over who will win best picture after “The King’s Speech’s” upset win at the PGA Awards this weekend, but for now it’s all about just making the dance. Now, perhaps it’s been the thin air in Park City or the extra time to ponder possibilities in-between Sundance screenings, but there have been some last minute changes in my overall predictions which I have written about in excruciating detail since August.

In the best picture race, it looks like “Winter’s Bone” is out. At this point, there is just too much evidence that “The Town” and “127 Hours” will make the final two nominations and last year’s Sundance favorite will have to make due with an adapted screenplay honor and best actress nod for Jennifer Lawrence. However, as much as it pains me to write it, don’t be shocked if “The Kids Are All Right” is the one missing from the top ten instead. It would be a crime if it didn’t make it, but the passion may be missing from the Academy for Lisa Cholodelenko’s dramedy to get it in the 10 (but let’s hope not).

In the best supporting actress field, look for Barbara Hershey instead of Mila Kunis to land a nomination for “Black Swan.” (Yeah, we want to see Mila on the red carpet too. Maybe she’ll be a presenter.)

Ryan Gosling and Michelle Williams of “Blue Valentine” should crack the best actor and best actress fields respectively. That means “Get Low’s” Robert Duvall, among others, won’t make it.

John Hawkes of “Winter’s Bone” might have landed a best supporting actor SAG Award nomination, but “Social Network’s” Andrew Garfield will make the Oscar field in his place.

Besides “Incendies,” “In A Better World” and “Biutiful,” foreign language film is a crapshoot. Take your best guess for the final two selections.

Keeping that in mind, here’s a projected rundown of the films that will have the most nominations.

“King’s Speech” – 11
“Inception” – 10
“The Social Network” – 9
“The Fighter” – 8
“Black Swan” – 8
“True Grit” – 7
“127 Hours” – 5
“Toy Story 3″ – 5
“The Kids Are All Right” – 4
“Alice in Wonderland” – 4

And finally, here are my nomination predictions with one caveat, live action short and animated short are not included (if you really have to ask…).

Best Picture
“Inception”
“The King’s Speech”
“Black Swan”
“The Social Network”
“The Kids Are All Right”
“The Town”
“True Grit”
“The Fighter”
“127 Hours”
“Toy Story 3″

Best Director
Darren Aronofsky, “Black Swan”
Christopher Nolan, “Inception”
Tom Hooper, “The King’s Speech”
David Fincher, “The Social Network”
David O. Russell, “The Fighter”

Best Actor
Colin Firth, “The King’s Speech”
James Franco, “127 Hours”
Jesse Eisenberg, “The Social Network”
Jeff Bridges, “True Grit”
Ryan Gosling, “Blue Valentine”

Best Actress
Natalie Portman, “Black Swan”
Annette Bening, “The Kids Are All Right”
Nicole Kidman, “Rabbit Hole”
Jennifer Lawrence, “Winter’s Bone”
Michelle Williams, “Blue Valentine”

Best Supporting Actor
Christian Bale, “The Fighter”
Jeremy Renner, “The Town”
Geoffrey Rush, “The King’s Speech”
Andrew Garfield, “The Social Network”
Mark Ruffalo, “The Kids Are All Right”

Best Supporting Actress
Melissa Leo, “The Fighter”
Amy Adams, “The Fighter”
Hailee Steinfeld, “True Grit”
Helena Bonham Carter, “The King’s Speech”
Barbara Hershey, “Black Swan”

Adapted Screenplay
“127 Hours”
“The Social Network”
“Toy Story 3″
“True Grit”
“Winter’s Bone”

Original Screenplay
“The King’s Speech”
“Black Swan”
“Inception”
“The Kids Are All Right”
“The Fighter”

Editing
“Black Swan”
“Inception”
“The Social Network”
“The King’s Speech”
“The Fighter”

Foreign Language Film
“In A Better World” (Denmark)
“Biutiful” (Mexico)
“Incendies” (Canada)
“Tambien la Lluvia‚” (“Even the Rain”) (Spain)
“Confessions” (Japan)

Cinematography
“Black Swan”
“Inception”
“True Grit”
“The King’s Speech”
“The Social Network”

Art Direction
“Alice in Wonderland”
“Black Swan”
“Inception”
“The King’s Speech”
“True Grit”

Costumes
“Alice in Wonderland”
“The King’s Speech”
“The Tempest”
“True Grit”
“Tron Legacy”

Original Score
“The Social Network”
“Inception”
“The King’s Speech”
“How To Train Your Dragon”
“127 Hours”

Original Song
“Shine” from “Waiting for ‘Superman’”
“If I Rise” from “127 Hours”
“You Haven’t Seen the Last of Me” from “Burlesque”
“I See the Light” from “Tangled”
“We Belong Together” from “Toy Story 3″

Sound Editing
“Scott Pilgrim vs. The World”
“Iron Man 2″
“Inception”
“Toy Story 3″
“Tron Legacy”

Sound Mixing
“Scott Pilgrim vs. The World”
“Black Swan”
“Inception”
“The Social Network”
“Tron Legacy”

Documentary
“Waiting for ‘Superman’”
“Inside Job”
“Restrepo”
“Waste Land”
“Exit through the Gift Shop”

Makeup
“Alice in Wonderland”
“The Fighter”
“The Wolfman”

Visual Effects
“Alice in Wonderland”
“Scott Pilgrim vs. The World”
“Inception”
“Iron Man 2″
“Tron Legacy”

Animated Feature
“Toy Story 3″
“How To Train Your Dragon”
“Despicable Me”

Look for complete nomination coverage beginning at 8:30 AM EST/ 5:30 AM EST and all day long on HitFix.

For more on award season and entertainment buzz and news follow Gregory Ellwood on Twitter @HitFixGregory.

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